Ness Notes (CFB Week 6)
The third weekend of the CFB season saw seven games between teams ranked in the AP poll, the most in a single day since the AP began including 25 teams in its rankings in 1969. It should have been a day to remember. , but became more of an embarrassment, as both field officials and replay booth officials affected the outcome of a number of major games, most notably Oklahoma/Oregon, but including but not limited to BYU/ Boston College and LSU/Auburn.
With the schedule rolling into October, the CFB season has entered its sixth week of play and next Saturday features six games between schools ranked in the AP top 25. The SEC features two such matchups, as No. 5 Florida hosts No. 9 LSU and No. 10 Georgia receives a visit from No. 13 Tennessee. It’s the annual “Red River Shootout” in Dallas as No. 7 Texas takes on No. 14 Oklahoma and with both teams already saddled with a loss, the underdog is almost out of the picture for the title game. BCS. In the Pac-10, No. 11 Oregon is in Berkeley to face No. 16 Cal and in the Big East, No. 21 Virginia Tech is at No. 25 Boston College.
The first BCS standings will be released on October 15, and going into this weekend’s game, there are 13 undefeated Division IA teams left (down from 12 last year at this time). While I often state (as do many others) that point spread tends to be the “great equalizer,” that hasn’t been the case so far in 2006. The undefeated 13 have combined to go 35-18-2 ATS (with six undefeated). -aligned games), a winning percentage of 66.0. By contrast, the nation’s remaining nine winless teams have produced a pathetic ATS mark of 9-30-2 (two games unaligned), for a 23.1 winning percentage.
Ohio State is 5-0 SU and ATS, winning three games over top 25 opponents, including road wins at then-No. 2 Texas (24-7) and then No. 13 Iowa (38-17). Louisville is the only other perfect team in both SU and ATS, going 4-0 in both categories. None of the undefeated 13 have a losing ATS record, but Florida and Michigan (both 5-0) are 2-2-1 ATS apiece. Among the winless teams, Stanford (0-5 SU and ATS) and San Diego State (0-4 SU and ATS) are the worst of the bunch, while 0-5 Florida International has gone 3-1-1 ATS. The Golden Panthers lost their first four games by one, one, five and four points, before losing 31-6 last Saturday (at home!) to Arkansas State.
BYU beat TCU a week ago Thursday in Fort Worth (31-17), ending the Horned Frogs’ 13-game winning streak. TCU is in Provo this Thursday night to play the Utes, a team they beat last year in Fort Worth (also on a Thursday night), 23-20 in overtime. That TCU victory ended Utah’s 18-game winning streak and I’m sure the Utes would have loved to “return the favor” in Provo, but last week’s results ruined “the best laid plans.” By the way, Utah had a pretty bad weekend, losing 36-3 at home to Boise State, the school’s worst home loss in 17 years.
TCU’s loss leaves the No. 1 team in the nation, Ohio State, with the longest active winning streak (12 in a row). The Buckeyes have also ‘covered’ 12 wins, an amazing achievement. West Virginia trails just behind the Buckeyes, having won 11 straight (9-1 ATS with one game not lined up). Ohio State hosts Bowling Green (3-2 and 1-3-1 ATS) this Saturday and the Buckeyes are currently 35-point favorites. West Va is at Mississippi State on Saturday and the Mountaineers are an early 24-point option.
USC owns the longest active winning streak at home (28), as well as the longest active winning streak on the road (18). The Trojans are at home this Saturday to take on a much-improved Washington (4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS). USC (20 1/2-point pick) has gone 20-8 ATS during its current home winning streak, but this year’s team has averaged just 25.3 PPG over its last three games, after scoring 50 points in its opening season in Arkansas. From 2003 through 2005 (managed by Matt Leinart), Pete Carroll’s team averaged an incredible 42.8 PPG while posting marks of 37-2 SU and 25-14 ATS.
Behind USC are Louisville with 14 straight home wins (13-1 ATS!) and Florida with 12 straight home wins (7-4-1 ATS). Texas Tech and Penn State have each won 11 straight at home, with the Red Raiders going 5-3 ATS and the Nittany Lions going 8-2. Louisville and Penn State are on the road this weekend, but both Florida and Texas Tech face big tests at home. The Gators host No. 9 LSU and Texas Tech takes on No. 23 Missouri (5-0 SU and 3-1 ATS). Florida is actually a little house dog right now (plus one), while Texas Tech is favored by four points. Not surprisingly, Missouri has yet to fall behind a game this year!
Temple owns the longest active losing streak overall (17 losing streaks / 6-10-1 ATS) and the longest active losing streak on the road (18 straight losses / 8-9-1 ATS). The Owls will only be able to end/extend one of those streaks this weekend as they host Kent State on Saturday. The Golden Flashes went 1-10 last year, but after losing their home opener to Minnesota 44-0, they have covered their last four games, winning SU in the last three! Kent is favored by 24 points.
There’s a big gap between Temple and the school with the second-longest active losing streak in the country, the Colorado Buffs. Colorado will host Baylor this Saturday, riding a nine-game losing streak (2-6 ATS) in the contest. How did Colorado fall so far and so fast? When Colorado beat Missouri last year 41-12, the Buffs were 7-2. However, they lost their last two games of the regular season and then were beaten 70-3 by Texas in the Big-12 title game (they had lost 42-3 to Oklahoma in the 2004 Big-12 title game! !).
Colorado then lost to Clemson (19-10) in the Champs Sports Bowl. Head coach Gary Barnett came out struggling after the year and in came Dan Hawkins from Boise State, who has a 53-11 record over the past five years. Hawkins hasn’t been able to turn things around thus far as Colorado is 0-5 (1-3 ATS) and that includes an embarrassing 19-10 home loss to I-AA Montana State in the season opener. It’s homecoming this Saturday in Boulder (Colorado is a 4 1/2-point pick) and if the Buffs can’t beat Baylor…
Final thought… Garrett Wolfe of Northern Illinois leads the nation with a 236.2 YPG rushing average. That total is not only 75 YPG higher than Rutgers’ Ray Rice (the second-ranked running back in the nation), but it’s more than the average of all but SIX schools as a team!