Simple NFL Betting Systems #32 – Winless Teams That Deserve Attention
Here’s a simple betting system that just about anyone with access to the internet or a sports section of a newspaper from the current and previous week can follow. It will typically offer 2-6 earning opportunities each season.
The premise is this: Most of us know that the NFL point spread is generally shaded to favor the underdog due to the inherent bias in the NFL betting market towards the favorite. This bias is even more pronounced when certain situations arise and this particular betting system definitely falls into this category.
This system is based on only 2 basic primary conditions. The first is that the team in question is without winning directly. They don’t necessarily have to be winless against the spread, just winless in the league table.
Secondly, we are only going to watch the games in the middle of the season, that is, between weeks 6 and 13. This system is not effective in the first 5 weeks of the regular season when the betting public still supports the winless teams in most cases. boxes There have only been a handful of teams in league history yet to win after Week 13, and this system has had mixed results in those cases.
So what is the ATS record for winning teams in weeks 6-13 since 1994? He just so happens to be an outstanding 55-22 ATS the past 13 seasons and a perfect 5-0 ATS in 2006!
You’re probably ready to ask: how does such an obviously simple betting angle continue to work so well against the year-over-year spread? The answer lies in the reference earlier in this article to the bias inherent in betting on the favorites by the large number of ‘square’ bettors in North America. In this particular situation, it’s even more pronounced because so many more people have essentially “given up” on the winless teams in Week 6. More action on the favorite, and the teams that haven’t won after Week 6 are, of In fact, an underdog in more than 86% of cases: it means a slightly higher line and a higher chance that the underdog will beat the number.
Another factor in all of this is that teams that are 0-5, 0-6, etc. they’re probably not as bad as their track record might indicate. You don’t lose your first 6 games by getting a few lucky rebounds here and there. Of the 77 instances in the last 13 seasons in which a winless team played between Weeks 6 and 13, only 7 times did they actually have a turnover differential greater than 0 and in more than half of the cases, his average TOD per game was less than -1. Historically, teams with poor TOD in the season to date offer good comeback potential, whether they haven’t won or not.
So, here are all the details on this little gem (after adding a secondary condition as well).
(Grades: ASMR stands for Average Margin Margin Rating. A positive rating indicates a trend that is stronger than average versus the line, negative – weaker than average. DISD% is the percentage of teams in the league that have been involved in this situation at one time or another. % in weigh is the percentage of teams that are .500 or better and RPS is the average spread of the teams in this situation. For more details, see page 13 of my 2007 NFL Game Sheet Guide).
System Overview #32 (Last Updated: Jan 15, 2008)
Primary conditions (building blocks)
1) The team is SU with no wins.
2) Weeks 6-13.
Secondary conditions (tensioners)
1) Current opponent had Over Under (OU) system stats
ASMR: -0.5
% of housing: 50.9
Dog%: 88.7
ISDT%: 59.4
% by weight: 0.0
ESP: +5.74
Best Teams: DET(8); IAS(7); CHAR(5); ATL(4)
system logs
Overall (since ’94): 40-11 TTY
2007 season: 4-2 ATS
2006 season: 3-0 ATS
2005 season: 1-0 ATS
2004 season: 1-1 ATS
Last 3 results. Select in parentheses
2007 WK12–PIT 3 MIA 0 (MIA +16)W
2007 WK11 — PHI 17 MIA 7 (MIA +9.5) L
2007 WK10–STL 37 NOT 29 (STL+11)W